Impact of COVID-19 pandemic on depression incidence and healthcare service use among patients with depression: an interrupted time-series analysis from a 9-year population-based study.

BACKGROUND: Most studies on the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on depression burden focused on the earlier pandemic phase specific to lockdowns, but the longer-term impact of the pandemic is less well-studied. In this population-based cohort study, we examined the short-term and long-term impacts of COVID-19 on depression incidence and healthcare service use among patients with depression. METHODS: Using the territory-wide electronic medical records in Hong Kong, we identified all patients aged ≥ 10 years with new diagnoses of depression from 2014 to 2022. We performed an interrupted time-series (ITS) analysis to examine changes in incidence of medically attended depression before and during the pandemic. We then divided all patients into nine cohorts based on year of depression incidence and studied their initial and ongoing service use patterns until the end of 2022. We applied generalized linear modeling to compare the rates of healthcare service use in the year of diagnosis between patients newly diagnosed before and during the pandemic. A separate ITS analysis explored the pandemic impact on the ongoing service use among prevalent patients with depression. RESULTS: We found an immediate increase in depression incidence (RR = 1.21, 95% CI: 1.10-1.33, p < 0.001) in the population after the pandemic began with non-significant slope change, suggesting a sustained effect until the end of 2022. Subgroup analysis showed that the increases in incidence were significant among adults and the older population, but not adolescents. Depression patients newly diagnosed during the pandemic used 11% fewer resources than the pre-pandemic patients in the first diagnosis year. Pre-existing depression patients also had an immediate decrease of 16% in overall all-cause service use since the pandemic, with a positive slope change indicating a gradual rebound over a 3-year period. CONCLUSIONS: During the pandemic, service provision for depression was suboptimal in the face of increased demand generated by the increasing depression incidence during the COVID-19 pandemic. Our findings indicate the need to improve mental health resource planning preparedness for future public health crises.

Comparison of the market share of public and private hospitals under different Medical Alliances: an interrupted time-series analysis in rural China.

BACKGROUND: China initiated the Medical Alliances (MAs) reform to enhance resource allocation efficiency and ensure equitable healthcare. In response to challenges posed by the predominance of public hospitals, the reform explores public-private partnerships within the MAs. Notably, private hospitals can now participate as either leading or member institutions. This study aims to evaluate the dynamic shifts in market share between public and private hospitals across diverse MAs models. METHODS: Data spanning April 2017 to March 2019 for Dangyang County's MA and January 2018 to December 2019 for Qianjiang County's MA were analyzed. Interrupted periods occurred in April 2018 and January 2019. Using independent sample t-tests, chi-square tests, and interrupted time series analysis (ITSA), we compared the proportion of hospital revenue, the proportion of visits for treatment, and the average hospitalization days of discharged patients between leading public hospitals and leading private hospitals, as well as between member public hospitals and member private hospitals before and after the reform. RESULTS: After the MAs reform, the revenue proportion decreased for leading public and private hospitals, while member hospitals saw an increase. However, ITSA revealed a notable rise trend in revenue proportion for leading private hospitals (p < 0.001), with a slope of 0.279% per month. Member public and private hospitals experienced decreasing revenue proportions, with outpatient visits proportions declining in member public hospitals by 0.089% per month (p < 0.05) and inpatient admissions proportions dropping in member private hospitals by 0.752% per month (p < 0.001). The average length of stay in member private hospitals increased by 0.321 days per month after the reform (p < 0.01). CONCLUSIONS: This study underscores the imperative to reinforce oversight and constraints on leading hospitals, especially private leading hospitals, to curb the trend of diverting patients from member hospitals. At the same time, for private hospitals that are at a disadvantage in competition and may lead to unreasonable prolongation of hospital stay, this kind of behavior can be avoided by strengthening supervision or granting leadership.

Psychotropic Medication Prescribing for Children and Adolescents After the Onset of the COVID-19 Pandemic.

Importance: Numerous studies have provided evidence for the negative associations of the COVID-19 pandemic with mental health, but data on the use of psychotropic medication in children and adolescents after the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic are lacking. Objective: To assess the rates and trends of psychotropic medication prescribing before and over the 2 years after the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic in children and adolescents in France. Design, Setting, and Participants: This cross-sectional study used nationwide interrupted time-series analysis of outpatient drug dispensing data from the IQVIA X-ponent database. All 8 839 143 psychotropic medication prescriptions dispensed to children (6 to 11 years of age) and adolescents (12 to 17 years of age) between January 2016 and May 2022 in France were retrieved and analyzed. Exposure: Onset of COVID-19 pandemic. Main outcomes and Measures: Monthly rates of psychotropic medication prescriptions per 1000 children and adolescents were analyzed using a quasi-Poisson regression before and after the pandemic onset (March 2020), and percentage changes in rates and trends were assessed. After the pandemic onset, rate ratios (RRs) were calculated between estimated and expected monthly prescription rates. Analyses were stratified by psychotropic medication class (antipsychotic, anxiolytic, hypnotic and sedative, antidepressant, and psychostimulant) and age group (children, adolescents). Results: In total, 8 839 143 psychotropic medication prescriptions were analyzed, 5 884 819 [66.6%] for adolescents and 2 954 324 [33.4%] for children. In January 2016, the estimated rate of monthly psychotropic medication prescriptions was 9.9 per 1000 children and adolescents, with the prepandemic rate increasing by 0.4% per month (95% CI, 0.3%-0.4%). In March 2020, the monthly prescription rate dropped by 11.5% (95% CI, -17.7% to -4.9%). During the 2 years following the pandemic onset, the trend changed significantly, and the prescription rate increased by 1.3% per month (95% CI, 1.2%-1.5%), reaching 16.1 per 1000 children and adolescents in May 2022. Monthly rates of psychotropic medication prescriptions exceeded the expected rates by 11% (RR, 1.11 [95% CI, 1.08-1.14]). Increases in prescribing trends were observed for all psychotropic medication classes after the pandemic onset but were substantial for anxiolytics, hypnotics and sedatives, and antidepressants. Prescription rates rose above those expected for all psychotropic medication classes except psychostimulants (RR, 1.12 [95% CI, 1.09-1.15] in adolescents and 1.06 [95% CI, 1.05-1.07] in children for antipsychotics; RR, 1.30 [95% CI, 1.25-1.35] in adolescents and 1.11 [95% CI, 1.09-1.12] in children for anxiolytics; RR, 2.50 [95% CI, 2.23-2.77] in adolescents and 1.40 [95% CI, 1.30-1.50] in children for hypnotics and sedatives; RR, 1.38 [95% CI, 1.29-1.47] in adolescents and 1.23 [95% CI, 1.20-1.25] in children for antidepressants; and RR, 0.97 [95% CI, 0.95-0.98] in adolescents and 1.02 [95% CI, 1.00-1.04] in children for psychostimulants). Changes were more pronounced among adolescents than children. Conclusions and Relevance: These findings suggest that prescribing of psychotropic medications for children and adolescents in France significantly and persistently increased after the COVID-19 pandemic onset. Future research should identify underlying determinants to improve psychological trajectories in young people.

Comparative Interrupted Time Series Analysis of Direct Medical Expense and Length of Stay in Elderly Patients with Femoral Neck Fractures Who Underwent Total Hip Arthroplasty and Hemiarthroplasty: A Real World Nationwide Database Study.

Background: The objective of our study was to analyze the postoperative direct medical expenses and hospital lengths of stay (LOS) of elderly patients who had undergone either hemiarthroplasty (HA) or total hip arthroplasty (THA) for femoral neck fractures and to determine the indication of THA by comparing those variables between the 2 groups by time. Methods: In this comparative large-sample cohort study, we analyzed data from the 2011 to 2018 Korean National Health Insurance Review and Assessment Service database. The included patients were defined as elderly individuals aged 60 years or older who underwent HA or THA for a femoral neck fracture. A 1:1 risk-set matching was performed on the propensity score, using a nearest-neighbor matching algorithm with a maximum caliper of 0.01 of the hazard components. In comparative interrupted time series analysis, time series were constructed using the time unit of one-quarter before and after 3 years from time zero. For the segmented regression analysis, we utilized a generalized linear model with a gamma distribution and logarithmic link function. Results: A total of 4,246 patients who received THA were matched and included with 4,246 control patients who underwent HA. Although there was no statistically significant difference in direct medical expense and hospital LOS for the first 6 months after surgery, direct medical expenses and hospital LOS in THA were relatively reduced compared to the HA up to 24 months after surgery (p < 0.05). In the subgroup analysis, the THA group's hospital LOS decreased significantly compared to that of the HA group during the 7 to 36 months postoperative period in the 65 ≤ age < 80 age group (p < 0.05). Direct medical expenses of the THA group significantly decreased compared to those of the HA group during the period from 7 to 24 months after surgery in the men group (p < 0.05). Conclusions: When performing THA in elderly patients with femoral neck fractures, the possibility of survival for at least 2 years should be considered from the perspective of medical expense and medical utilization. Additionally, in healthy and active male femoral neck fracture patients under the age of 80 years, THA may be more recommended than HA.

Using the WHO individual near miss case review (NMCR) cycle to improve quality of emergency obstetric care and maternal outcome in Keren hospital, Eritrea: an interrupted time series analysis.

BACKGROUND: In 2016, the WHO regional office for Europe prepared a manual for conducting routine facility based individual near miss case review cycle. This study evaluates the effectiveness of the individual near miss case review (NMCR) cycle in improving quality of emergency obstetric care and maternal outcome in Keren hospital. METHODS: An interrupted time series design was used to achieve the objectives of this study. Monthly data on women with potentially life-threatening conditions (PLTCs) admitted between April 2018 and October 2022 (i.e. 33 months pre-implementation and 22 months post-implementation) were collected from medical records. Segmented regression analysis was used to assess the intervention's effect on three process and outcome measures, namely, SMO, delayed care, and substandard care. The intervention was expected a priori to show immediate improvements without time-lag followed by gradual increment in slope. Segmented regression analyses were performed using the "itsa' command in STATA. RESULTS: During the entire study period, 4365 women with potentially life threatening conditions were identified. There was a significant reduction in the post-implementation period in the proportion of mothers with PLTC who experienced SMO (- 8.86; p <  0.001), delayed care (- 8.76; p <  0.001) and substandard care (- 5.58; p <  0.001) compared to pre-implementation period. Results from the segmented regression analysis revealed that the percentage of women with SMO showed a significant 4.75% (95% CI: - 6.95 to - 2.54, p <  0.001) reduction in level followed by 0.28 percentage points monthly (95% CI: - 0.37 to - 0.14, p <  0.001) drop in trend. Similarly, a significant drop of 3.50% (95% CI: - 4.74 to - 2.26, p <  0.001) in the level of substandard care along with a significant decrease of 0.21 percentage points (95% CI: - 0.28 to - 0.14, p < 0.001) in the slope of the regression line was observed. The proportion of women who received delayed care also showed a significant 7% (95% CI: - 9.28 to - 4.68, p < 0.001) reduction in post-implementation level without significant change in slope. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings suggest that the WHO individual NMCR cycle was associated with substantial improvements in quality of emergency obstetric care and maternal outcome. The intervention also bears a great potential for scaling-up following the guidance provided in the WHO NMCR manual.

Effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on utilization of essential health services in Iran evidence from an interrupted time series analysis.

BACKGROUND: The COVID-19 disrupted the provision of essential health services in numerous countries, potentially leading to outbreaks of deadly diseases. This study aims to investigate the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on the utilization of essential health services in Iran. METHODS: An analytical cross-sectional study was conducted using interrupted time series (ITS) analysis. Data about five indicators, including 'childhood vaccination, infant care, hypertension screening, diabetes screening, and breast cancer screening,' were obtained from the electronic health record System in two-time intervals: 15 months before (November 2018 to January 2020) and 15 months after (January 2020 to May 2021) the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. The data were analyzed by utilizing ITS. In addition, a Poisson model was employed due to the usage of count data. The Durbin-Watson (DW) test was used to identify the presence of lag-1 autocorrelation in the time series data. All statistical analysis was performed using R 4.3.1 software, considering a 5% significance level. RESULTS: The ITS analysis showed that the COVID-19 pandemic significantly affected the utilization of all essential health services (P < 0.0001). The utilization of hypertension screening (RR = 0.51, p < 0.001), diabetes screening (RR = 0.884, p < 0.001), breast cancer screening (RR = 0.435, p < 0.001), childhood vaccination (IRR = 0.947, p < 0.001), and infant care (RR = 1.666, p < 0.001), exhibited a significant decrease in the short term following the pandemic (P < 0.0001). However, the long-term trend for all service utilization, except breast cancer screening (IRR = 0.952, p < 0.001), demonstrated a significant increase. CONCLUSIONS: The COVID-19 pandemic affected utilization of essential health care in Iran. It is imperative to utilize this evidence to develop policies that will be translated into targeted planning and implementation to sustain provision and utilization of essential health services during public health emergencies. It is also vital to raise awareness and public knowledge regarding the consequences of interruptions in essential health services. In addition, it is important to identify the supply- and demand-side factors contributing to these disruptions.

Interrupting Effect of Social Distancing on Ischemic Heart Disease, Asthma, Stroke, and Suicide Attempt Patients by PM2.5 Exposure.

PURPOSE: This study aimed to examine the interrupting effect of social distancing (SD) on emergency department (ED) patients with ischemic heart disease (IHD), stroke, asthma, and suicide attempts by PM2.5 exposure in eight Korean megacities from 2017 to 2020. MATERIALS AND METHODS: The study used National Emergency Department Information System and AirKorea data. A total of 469014 patients visited EDs from 2017 to 2020. Interrupted time series analysis was employed to examine changes in the level and slope of the time series, relative risk, and confidence intervals (CIs) by PM2.5 exposure. The SD level was added to the sensitivity analysis. RESULTS: The interrupted time series analysis demonstrated a significant increase in the ratio of relative risk (RRR) of IHD patients in Seoul (RRR=1.004, 95% CI: 1.001, 1.006) and Busan (RRR=1.007, 95% CI: 1.002, 1.012) post-SD. Regarding stroke, only patients in Seoul exhibited a significant decrease post-SD (RRR=0.995, 95% CI: 0.991, 0.999). No significant changes were observed for asthma in any of the cities. In the case of suicide attempts, Ulsan demonstrated substantial pre-SD (RR=0.827, 95% CI: 0.732, 0.935) and post-SD (RRR=1.200, 95% CI: 1.057, 1.362) differences. CONCLUSION: While the interrupting effect of SD was not as pronounced as anticipated, this study did validate the effectiveness of SD in modifying health behaviors and minimizing avoidable visits to EDs in addition to curtailing the occurrence of infectious diseases.

Understanding the Fluctuations in Korea's Suicide Rates: A Change-Point Analysis and Interrupted Time Series Analysis.

BACKGROUND: Korea has witnessed significant fluctuations in its suicide rates in recent decades, which may be related to modifications in its death registration system. This study aimed to explore the structural shifts in suicide trends, as well as accidental and ill-defined deaths in Korea, and to analyze the patterns of these changes. METHODS: We analyzed age-adjusted death rates for suicides, deaths due to transport accidents, falls, drowning, fire-related incidents, poisonings, other external causes, and ill-defined deaths in Korea from 1997 to 2021. We identified change-points using the 'breakpoints' function from the 'strucchange' package and conducted interrupted time series analyses to assess trends before and after these change-points. RESULTS: Korea's suicide rates had three change-points in February 2003, September 2008, and June 2012, characterized by stair-step changes, with level jumps at the 2003 and 2008 change-points and a sharp decline at the 2012 change-point. Notably, the 2003 and 2008 spikes roughly coincided with modifications to the death ascertainment process. The trend in suicide rates showed a downward slope within the 2003-2008 and 2008-2012 periods. Furthermore, ill-defined deaths and most accidental deaths decreased rapidly through several change-points in the early and mid-2000s. CONCLUSION: The marked fluctuations in Korea's suicide rate during the 2000s may be largely attributed to improvements in suicide classification, with potential implications beyond socio-economic factors. These findings suggest that the actual prevalence of suicides in Korea in the 2000s might have been considerably higher than officially reported.

Effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on HIV, malaria and tuberculosis indicators in Togo: an interrupted time series analysis.

BACKGROUND: Limited data are available on the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on health-related indicators in sub-Saharan Africa. This study aimed to estimate the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on nine indicators of HIV, malaria and tuberculosis (TB) in Togo. METHODS: For this interrupted time series analysis, national health information system data from January 2019 to December 2021 and TB programmatic data from the first quarter of 2018 to the fourth quarter of 2022 were analysed. Nine indicators were included. We used Poisson segmented regression to estimate the immediate impact of the pandemic and per-pandemic period trends through incidence rate ratios (IRRs) with 95% CIs. RESULTS: Overall, there was a decrease in six of the nine indicators, ranging from 19.3% (IRR 0.807, 95% CI 0.682 to 0.955, p=0.024) for the hospitalisation of patients for malaria to 36.9% (IRR 0.631, 95% CI 0.457 to 0.871, p=0.013) for TB diagnosis by Mycobacterium tuberculosis Xpert immediately after the declaration of the COVID-19 pandemic. A comparison of the observed and predicted trends showed that the trend remained constant between the prepandemic and pandemic periods of COVID-19 for all malaria indicators. A significant downward monthly trend was observed in antiretroviral therapy initiation (IRR 0.909, 95% CI 0.892 to 0.926, p<0.001) and positive TB microscopy (IRR 0.919, 95% CI 0.880 to 0.960, p=0.002). CONCLUSION: HIV, malaria and TB services were generally maintained over time in Togo despite the COVID-19 pandemic. However, given the decline in levels immediately after the onset of the pandemic, there is an urgent need to improve the preparedness of the healthcare system.

Design and statistical analysis reporting among interrupted time series studies in drug utilization research: a cross-sectional survey.

INTRODUCTION: Interrupted time series (ITS) design is a commonly used method for evaluating large-scale interventions in clinical practice or public health. However, improperly using this method can lead to biased results. OBJECTIVE: To investigate design and statistical analysis characteristics of drug utilization studies using ITS design, and give recommendations for improvements. METHODS: A literature search was conducted based on PubMed from January 2021 to December 2021. We included original articles that used ITS design to investigate drug utilization without restriction on study population or outcome types. A structured, pilot-tested questionnaire was developed to extract information regarding study characteristics and details about design and statistical analysis. RESULTS: We included 153 eligible studies. Among those, 28.1% (43/153) clearly explained the rationale for using the ITS design and 13.7% (21/153) clarified the rationale of using the specified ITS model structure. One hundred and forty-nine studies used aggregated data to do ITS analysis, and 20.8% (31/149) clarified the rationale for the number of time points. The consideration of autocorrelation, non-stationary and seasonality was often lacking among those studies, and only 14 studies mentioned all of three methodological issues. Missing data was mentioned in 31 studies. Only 39.22% (60/153) reported the regression models, while 15 studies gave the incorrect interpretation of level change due to time parameterization. Time-varying participant characteristics were considered in 24 studies. In 97 studies containing hierarchical data, 23 studies clarified the heterogeneity among clusters and used statistical methods to address this issue. CONCLUSION: The quality of design and statistical analyses in ITS studies for drug utilization remains unsatisfactory. Three emerging methodological issues warranted particular attention, including incorrect interpretation of level change due to time parameterization, time-varying participant characteristics and hierarchical data analysis. We offered specific recommendations about the design, analysis and reporting of the ITS study.

Differences in inpatient performance of public general hospitals following implementation of a points-counting payment based on diagnosis-related group: a robust multiple interrupted time series study in Wenzhou, China.

OBJECTIVES: This study measures the differences in inpatient performance after a points-counting payment policy based on diagnosis-related group (DRG) was implemented. The point value is dynamic; its change depends on the annual DRGs' cost settlements and points of the current year, which are calculated at the beginning of the following year. DESIGN: A longitudinal study using a robust multiple interrupted time series model to evaluate service performance following policy implementation. SETTING: Twenty-two public general hospitals (8 tertiary institutions and 14 secondary institutions) in Wenzhou, China. INTERVENTION: The intervention was implemented in January 2020. OUTCOME MEASURES: The indicators were case mix index (CMI), cost per hospitalisation (CPH), average length of stay (ALOS), cost efficiency index (CEI) and time efficiency index (TEI). The study employed the means of these indicators. RESULTS: The impact of COVID-19, which reached Zhejiang Province at the end of January 2020, was temporary given rapid containment following strict control measures. After the intervention, except for the ALOS mean, the change-points for the other outcomes (p<0.05) in tertiary and secondary institutions were inconsistent. The CMI mean turned to uptrend in tertiary (p<0.01) and secondary (p<0.0001) institutions compared with before. Although the slope of the CPH mean did not change (p>0.05), the uptrend of the CEI mean in tertiary institutions alleviated (p<0.05) and further increased (p<0.05) in secondary institutions. The slopes of the ALOS and TEI mean in secondary institutions changed (p<0.05), but not in tertiary institutions (p>0.05). CONCLUSIONS: This study showed a positive effect of the DRG policy in Wenzhou, even during COVID-19. The policy can motivate public general hospitals to improve their comprehensive capacity and mitigate discrepancies in treatment expenses efficiency for similar diseases. Policymakers are interested in whether the reform successfully motivates hospitals to strengthen their internal impetus and improve their performance, and this is supported by this study.

Reinforcing informed medication prescription for low back pain in the emergency department (RIME): a controlled interrupted time series implementation study protocol.

INTRODUCTION: Management guidelines for low back pain (LBP) recommend exclusion of serious pathology, followed by simple analgesics, superficial heat therapy, early mobilisation and patient education. An audit in a large metropolitan hospital emergency department (ED) revealed high rates of non-recommended medication prescription for LBP (65% of patients prescribed opioids, 17% prescribed benzodiazepines), high inpatient admission rates (20% of ED LBP patients), delayed patient mobilisation (on average 6 hours) and inadequate patient education (48% of patients). This study aims to improve medication prescription for LBP in this ED by implementing an intervention shown previously to improve guideline-based management of LBP in other Australian EDs. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: A controlled interrupted time series study will evaluate the intervention in the ED before (24 weeks; 20 March 2023-3 September 2023) and after (24 weeks; 27 November 2024-12 May 2024) implementation (12 weeks; 4 September 2023-26 November 2023), additionally comparing findings with another ED in the same health service. The multicomponent implementation strategy uses a formalised clinical flow chart to support clinical decision-making and aims to change clinician behaviour, through clinician education, provision of alternative treatments, educational resources, audit and feedback, supported by implementation champions. The primary outcome is the percentage of LBP patients prescribed non-recommended medications (opioids, benzodiazepines and/or gabapentinoids), assessed via routinely collected ED data. Anticipated sample size is 2000 patients (n=1000 intervention, n=1000 control) based on average monthly admissions of LBP presentations in the EDs. Secondary outcomes include inpatient admission rate, time to mobilisation, provision of patient education, imaging requests, representation to the ED within 6 months and healthcare costs. In nested qualitative research, we will study ED clinicians' perceptions of the implementation and identify how benefits can be sustained over time. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: This study received ethical approval from the Metro North Human Research Ethics Committee (HREC/2022/MNHA/87995). Study findings will be published in peer-reviewed journals and presented at international conferences and educational workshops. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: ACTRN12622001536752.

Editorial: Re-enchanting the vocation of science.

This editorial introduces the collection, "Specialists with Spirit: Re-Enchanting the Vocation of Science," co-edited by Dorien Daling and Hanneke Hoekstra. The collection offers a tribute to the eminent historian of science, Klaas van Berkel, commemorating his retirement from the University of Groningen. The papers compel us to consider the ongoing tensions between knowledge production and the social, political, and economic constraints faced by scholars, a theme that Max Weber famously addressed in his 1917 lecture, Wissenschaft als Beruf, which the collection's contributors revisit as they consider a range of historical and contemporary questions concerning science and its study by historians.

The impact of tightened prescribing restrictions for PBS-subsidised opioid medicines and the introduction of half-pack sizes, Australia, 2020-21: an interrupted time series analysis.

OBJECTIVES: To evaluate the impact of the tightened Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme (PBS) prescribing rules for immediate release (IR) and controlled release (CR) opioid medicines (1 June 2020), which also eliminated repeat dispensing without authorisation for codeine/paracetamol and tramadol IR and introduced half-pack size item codes for IR formulations. DESIGN, SETTING: Population-based interrupted time series analysis of PBS dispensing data claims for a 10% sample of PBS-eligible residents and IQVIA national opioid medicine sales data (PBS-subsidised and private prescriptions), 28 May 2018 - 6 June 2021. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Mean amount of PBS-subsidised opioid medicines dispensed per day and mean overall amount sold per day - each expressed as oral morphine equivalent milligrams (OME) - overall, by formulation type (IR, CR), and by specific formulation. RESULTS: During the twelve months following the PBS changes, daily PBS-subsidised opioid medicine dispensing was 81 565 OME lower (95% CI, -106 146 to -56 984 OME) than the mean daily level for 2018-20, a decline of 3.8% after adjusting for the pre-intervention trend; the relative reduction was greater for IR (8.4%) than CR formulations (2.6%). Total daily sales of all, IR formulation, and CR formulation opioid medicines did not change significantly after the PBS changes. Repeat dispensing of prescriptions comprised 7.4% of PBS-subsidised opioid dispensing before 1 June 2020, and 1.3% after the changes. Half-pack sizes comprised 8.4% of PBS-subsidised IR opioid medicine dispensing and 2.8% of all opioid medicines sold in the twelve months after the PBS changes. CONCLUSIONS: The introduction of new PBS rules for subsidised opioid medicines was followed by a decline in PBS-subsidised dispensing. Some people may have bypassed the new restrictions by switching to private prescriptions, but our findings suggest that opioid medicine use in Australia declined as a result of the new restrictions.

Impact of the UK soft drinks industry levy on health and health inequalities in children and adolescents in England: An interrupted time series analysis and population health modelling study.

BACKGROUND: The soft drinks industry levy (SDIL) in the United Kingdom has led to a significant reduction in household purchasing of sugar in drinks. In this study, we examined the potential medium- and long-term implications for health and health inequalities among children and adolescents in England. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We conducted a controlled interrupted time series analysis to measure the effects of the SDIL on the amount of sugar per household per week from soft drinks purchased, 19 months post implementation and by index of multiple deprivation (IMD) quintile in England. We modelled the effect of observed sugar reduction on body mass index (BMI), dental caries, and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) in children and adolescents (0 to 17 years) by IMD quintile over the first 10 years following announcement (March 2016) and implementation (April 2018) of the SDIL. Using a lifetable model, we simulated the potential long-term impact of these changes on life expectancy for the current birth cohort and, using regression models with results from the IMD-specific lifetable models, we calculated the impact of the SDIL on the slope index of inequality (SII) in life expectancy. The SDIL was found to have reduced sugar from purchased drinks in England by 15 g/household/week (95% confidence interval: -10.3 to -19.7). The model predicts these reductions in sugar will lead to 3,600 (95% uncertainty interval: 946 to 6,330) fewer dental caries and 64,100 (54,400 to 73,400) fewer children and adolescents classified as overweight or obese, in the first 10 years after implementation. The changes in sugar purchasing and predicted impacts on health are largest for children and adolescents in the most deprived areas (Q1: 11,000 QALYs [8,370 to 14,100] and Q2: 7,760 QALYs [5,730 to 9,970]), while children and adolescents in less deprived areas will likely experience much smaller simulated effects (Q3: -1,830 QALYs [-3,260 to -501], Q4: 652 QALYs [-336 to 1,680], Q5: 1,860 QALYs [929 to 2,890]). If the simulated effects of the SDIL are sustained over the life course, it is predicted there will be a small but significant reduction in slope index of inequality: 0.76% (95% uncertainty interval: -0.9 to -0.62) for females and 0.94% (-1.1 to -0.76) for males. CONCLUSIONS: We predict that the SDIL will lead to medium-term reductions in dental caries and overweight/obesity, and long-term improvements in life expectancy, with the greatest benefits projected for children and adolescents from more deprived areas. This study provides evidence that the SDIL could narrow health inequalities for children and adolescents in England.

The effect of psychiatric decision unit services on inpatient admissions and mental health presentations in emergency departments: an interrupted time series analysis from two cities and one rural area in England.

AIMS: High-quality evidence is lacking for the impact on healthcare utilisation of short-stay alternatives to psychiatric inpatient services for people experiencing acute and/or complex mental health crises (known in England as psychiatric decision units [PDUs]). We assessed the extent to which changes in psychiatric hospital and emergency department (ED) activity were explained by implementation of PDUs in England using a quasi-experimental approach. METHODS: We conducted an interrupted time series (ITS) analysis of weekly aggregated data pre- and post-PDU implementation in one rural and two urban sites using segmented regression, adjusting for temporal and seasonal trends. Primary outcomes were changes in the number of voluntary inpatient admissions to (acute) adult psychiatric wards and number of ED adult mental health-related attendances in the 24 months post-PDU implementation compared to that in the 24 months pre-PDU implementation. RESULTS: The two PDUs (one urban and one rural) with longer (average) stays and high staff-to-patient ratios observed post-PDU decreases in the pattern of weekly voluntary psychiatric admissions relative to pre-PDU trend (Rural: -0.45%/week, 95% confidence interval [CI] = -0.78%, -0.12%; Urban: -0.49%/week, 95% CI = -0.73%, -0.25%); PDU implementation in each was associated with an estimated 35-38% reduction in total voluntary admissions in the post-PDU period. The (urban) PDU with the highest throughput, lowest staff-to-patient ratio and shortest average stay observed a 20% (-20.4%, CI = -29.7%, -10.0%) level reduction in mental health-related ED attendances post-PDU, although there was little impact on long-term trend. Pooled analyses across sites indicated a significant reduction in the number of voluntary admissions following PDU implementation (-16.6%, 95% CI = -23.9%, -8.5%) but no significant (long-term) trend change (-0.20%/week, 95% CI = -0.74%, 0.34%) and no short- (-2.8%, 95% CI = -19.3%, 17.0%) or long-term (0.08%/week, 95% CI = -0.13, 0.28%) effects on mental health-related ED attendances. Findings were largely unchanged in secondary (ITS) analyses that considered the introduction of other service initiatives in the study period. CONCLUSIONS: The introduction of PDUs was associated with an immediate reduction of voluntary psychiatric inpatient admissions. The extent to which PDUs change long-term trends of voluntary psychiatric admissions or impact on psychiatric presentations at ED may be linked to their configuration. PDUs with a large capacity, short length of stay and low staff-to-patient ratio can positively impact ED mental health presentations, while PDUs with longer length of stay and higher staff-to-patient ratios have potential to reduce voluntary psychiatric admissions over an extended period. Taken as a whole, our analyses suggest that when establishing a PDU, consideration of the primary crisis-care need that underlies the creation of the unit is key.

Impact of COVID-19 national response on primary care utilisation in Singapore: an interrupted time-series analysis.

Since the start of the pandemic, many national responses, such as nationwide lockdowns, have been implemented to curb the spread of COVID-19. We aim to assess the impact of Singapore's national responses on primary care utilisation. We performed an interrupted time series using acute and chronic primary care data of 3 168 578 visits between 1 September 2019 and 31 August 2020 over four periods: before any measures were put in place, during Disease Outbreak Response System Condition (DORSCON) Orange, when Circuit Breaker was instituted, and when Circuit Breaker was lifted. We found significant mean reductions in acute and chronic primary care visits immediately following DORSCON Orange and Circuit Breaker. DORSCON Orange was associated with - 2020 mean daily visits (95% CI - 2890 to - 1150). Circuit Breaker was associated with a further - 2510 mean daily visits (95% CI - 3660 to - 1360). Primary care utilisation for acute visits remained below baseline levels even after the Circuit Breaker was lifted. These significant reductions were observed in both acute and chronic visits, with acute visits experiencing a steeper drop during DORSCON Orange. Understanding the impact of COVID-19 measures on primary care utilisation will be useful for future public health planning.

Does a new case-based payment system promote the construction of the ordered health delivery system? Evidence from a pilot city in China.

BACKGROUND: The construction of the ordered health delivery system in China aims to enhance equity and optimize the efficient use of medical resources by rationally allocating patients to different levels of medical institutions based on the severity of their condition. However, superior hospitals have been overcrowded, and primary healthcare facilities have been underutilized in recent years. China has developed a new case-based payment method called "Diagnostic Intervention Package" (DIP). The government is trying to use this economic lever to encourage medical institutions to actively assume treatment tasks consistent with their functional positioning and service capabilities. METHODS: This study takes Tai'an, a DIP pilot city, as a case study and uses an interrupted time series analysis to analyze the impact of DIP reform on the case severity and service scope of medical institutions at different levels. RESULTS: The results show that after the DIP reform, the proportion of patients receiving complicated procedures (tertiary hospitals: ß3 = 0.197, P < 0.001; secondary hospitals: ß3 = 0.132, P = 0.020) and the case mix index (tertiary hospitals: ß3 = 0.022, P < 0.001; secondary hospitals: ß3 = 0.008, P < 0.001) in tertiary and secondary hospitals increased, and the proportion of primary-DIP-groups cases decreased (tertiary hospitals: ß3 = -0.290, P < 0.001; secondary hospitals: ß3 = -1.200, P < 0.001), aligning with the anticipated policy objectives. However, the proportion of patients receiving complicated procedures (ß3 = 0.186, P = 0.002) and the case mix index (ß3 = 0.002, P < 0.001) in primary healthcare facilities increased after the reform, while the proportion of primary-DIP-groups cases (ß3 = -0.515, P = 0.005) and primary-DIP-groups coverage (ß3 = -2.011, P < 0.001) decreased, which will reduce the utilization efficiency of medical resources and increase inequity. CONCLUSION: The DIP reform did not effectively promote the construction of the ordered health delivery system. Policymakers need to adjust economic incentives and implement restraint mechanisms to regulate the behavior of medical institutions.

How has the COVID-19 pandemic affected the delivery of preventive healthcare? An interrupted time series analysis of adults in English primary care from 2018 to 2022.

OBJECTIVE: Offering advice and support for smoking, obesity, excess alcohol, and physical inactivity is an evidence-based component of primary care. The objective was to quantify the impact of the pandemic on the rate of advice or referral for these four risk factors. METHODS: A retrospective cohort study using primary care data from 1847 practices in England and 21,191,389 patients contributing to the Oxford Clinical Informatics Digital Hub. An interrupted time series analysis was undertaken with a single change point (March 2020). Monthly trends were modelled from 1st January 2018 - 30th June 2022 using segmented linear regression. RESULTS: There was an initial step reduction in advice and referrals for smoking, obesity, excess alcohol, and physical inactivity in March 2020. By June 2022, advice on smoking (slope change -0.02 events per hundred patient years/month (EPH/month); 95% confidence interval (CI) -0.17, 0.21), obesity (0.06 EPH/month; 95% CI 0.01, 0.12), alcohol (0.02 EPH/month; 95% CI -0.01, 0.05) and physical inactivity (0.05 EPH/month; 95% CI 0.01, 0.09) had not returned to pre-pandemic levels. Similarly, smoking cessation referral remained lower (0.01 EPH/month; 95% CI -0.01, 0.09), excess alcohol referral returned to similar levels (0.0005 EPH/month; 95% CI 0.0002, 0.0008), while referral for obesity (0.14 EPH/month; 95% CI 0.10, 0.19) and physical inactivity (0.01 EPH/month; 95% CI 0.01, 0.02) increased relative to pre-pandemic rates. CONCLUSION: Advice and support for smoking, and advice for weight, excess alcohol and physical inactivity have not returned to pre-pandemic levels. Clinicians and policy makers should prioritise preventive care in COVID-19 recovery plans.